The whole convoluted premise for an Israeli attack on Iran turns out to be bogus. A number of countries - such as Japan, South Korea and Brazil - have the breakout capability in terms of assembling a nuclear weapon; the technology is decades old. This does not mean that they will do it.
The fact that Tehran allows immensely intrusive IAEA inspections and has offered concessions over the years that go way beyond its obligations under the NPT proves it does not want to build a bomb tomorrow (or yesterday, according to Israel). And even if it did, that would be detected just-in-time.
As it stands, Obama seems to bet that poker player Bibi won’t have the guts to order an attack on Iran while he’s in the Oval office. This is a plausible enough argument for why Obama might be tempted to launch an October surprise; but ultra-cautious, pragmatist Obama might only go for it in absolute desperation. As for Bibi, he would love Washington to do the dirty work for him (Israel, technically, can’t do it, and Benny Gantz knows it). So Bibi is already on “Waiting for Mitt” mode.
In terms of the Big Picture - the New Great Game in Eurasia - the Iranian nuclear program is just an excuse; the only one in the market, actually. This goes way beyond Israel and its own regional fever.
Cutting through the fog enveloping the 33-year-long wall of mistrust between Washington and Tehran, Washington’s fever remains the same, from Clinton I and II to Bush I and II to Obama and beyond; we need regime change, we need a Persian satrapy like we had before, we need all that oil and gas in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea for the West, and not for the East, we need to control this vital strategic node in Eurasia. For this fever, there seems to be no cure.
